Fear and Insecurity by Jonathan G. Leslie;

Author:Jonathan G. Leslie;
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Oxford University Press USA
Published: 2022-11-22T00:00:00+00:00

II.The Courtship

The signing of the JCPOA represented a significant challenge to Netanyahu’s narrative, which had the potential to damage his leadership. Although unable to prevent the agreement, he had reason to believe that his cause was not permanently lost. As countries around the world embraced populist leaders, Netanyahu saw an opportunity to make common cause with new allies who were willing to see Iran as a threat. The success of the Brexit campaign, in which voters in the United Kingdom supported a referendum to leave the European Union, demonstrated the appeal of a political movement built upon themes of moral indignation, xenophobia, and a perception of constant crisis. The fact that Donald Trump was a serious presidential candidate in America meant that populist messaging also resonated with a major American political party. Trump denounced Muslims and Obama, from which it followed that he would also oppose the JCPOA. Like Netanyahu, Trump had only a loose affiliation with the truth, and thus his attacks on Iran often echoed those of the Israeli leader and his wealthy donors.19

While Netanyahu benefitted from Trump’s candidacy, he would be best served by an against-the-odds victory that could resurrect his and Israel’s international standing. Netanyahu had personal connections to Trump, which would likely provide him access to the White House and the publicity of having a close personal relationship with the American president. His long-standing ties with the family of Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, meant he would have the ear of a high-ranking advisor.20 While Trump was unfocused about his intentions for the JCPOA, Netanyahu had reason to believe he could prevail on Trump to withdraw American support. Netanyahu understood that Trump did not operate on principle; whether he abandoned an American obligation would depend upon his own personal impulse and ego. For example, Trump might find it difficult to endorse a deal he had not negotiated, perhaps impossible given it was his predecessor’s signature foreign policy achievement. Trump was also mercurial and uninformed. On various occasions, he had appeared drawn to the business potential of an untapped market in Iran, criticizing Obama for not lifting the remaining sanctions that would facilitate commercial dealing.21 Days later, he voiced his determination to tarnish his predecessor’s legacy by destroying the signature policy achievement that had ended Iran’s international isolation.

If Netanyahu saw a risk in openly supporting Trump’s candidacy, he also understood it potentially held a large reward. With Netanyahu’s guidance and influence, Trump could be convinced to echo the Iran threat narrative and include Netanyahu in the strategic decision-making of his administration. A Trump victory would mean that Netanyahu would no longer be the lonely voice opposing a deal that the rest of the world was wholeheartedly embracing. Netanyahu had endangered his standing with Western allies by embracing the illiberal populist forces that darkened the future of international diplomacy. If Trump won, Netanyahu would make the American president both audience for and ally of his threat narrative.

Ironically, while both Netanyahu and Trump invoked metaphors of darkness, future Israeli

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